Will von der Leyen make it? (2024)

What’s driving the day in Brussels.

By NICHOLAS VINOCUR

with ZOYA SHEFTALOVICH

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Greetings, and welcome to your Friday Playbook. I’m Nick Vinocur, reporting for duty for the final time on a Friday. From next week, I’ll be in your inboxes every Monday, and my top colleagues Sarah Wheaton and Eddy Wax will divide up the rest of the week. It’s been a busy night, and not just because of the stunning news from a New York courtroom. Let’s go.

TRUMP GUILTY

TRUMP CONVICTED IN HUSH MONEY TRIAL: Donald Trump was found guilty Thursday of falsifying business records to cover up a hush money payment to a p*rn star, making him the first former U.S. president to become a convicted felon.

Verdict: The jury found Trump guilty on all 34 counts. The historic decision means the former president will now have a criminal record as he seeks a second term in the White House.

How Trump reacted: The Republican presidential candidate sat glumly in his chair while he listened to the verdict, according to this gripping account of what it was like inside the courtroom. He stared straight ahead, contemplating the moment. Then he whipped his gaze back toward the jury as each member individually confirmed that the judgment was unanimous.

‘Rigged’: Trump was defiant when he stepped outside the courtroom, describing the proceedings as a “rigged, disgraceful trial.” He said: “I’m a very innocent man, and it’s OK, I’m fighting for our country. I’m fighting for our constitution. Our whole country is being rigged now.”

“We’ll fight to the end and we’ll win,” Trump continued. “Because our country has gone to hell. We don’t have the same country anymore.”

Not wasting time: Trump’s campaign has already sent out fundraising materials, trying to turn his historic criminal conviction into a campaign cash windfall.

What happens next, legally: Trump’s sentencing was scheduled for July 11. He faces up to four years in prison, but may not serve jail time. He’s likely to appeal the verdict, though that could take years to resolve.

How it will impact his political prospects: The pressing question is how the conviction will affect Trump’s chances of reelection in November. The trial wasn’t going to tell polarized Americans anything they didn’t already know about Trump, but it could matter more than you expect in a contest of fine margins, according to this analysis by my Stateside colleagues.

The longer view: POLITICO’s Global Editor-in-Chief John Harris argues that the verdict complicates Trump’s path back to the White House, no matter how much it motivates his supporters. Trump needs to win votes from people who despise him, and that just got harder. The verdict won’t suddenly transform the presidential race, Harris says, but “this week was easily the worst so far this year for Trump and the best for Biden.” If you only read one thing about the decision today, make it this.

Yes. Trump can still run for president as a felon.

This will run and run: Republican lawmakers blasted the conviction as a “shameful day in American history” and a “travesty of justice.” The Biden campaign declared the verdict confirmation that “no one is above the law,” while warning Democrats that Trump could still win the election.

Follow it here: POLITICO’s U.S. site has everything you need to know about the momentous verdict, including updates on the fallout, the next legal steps and much more.

EU TOP JOBS RACE

WILL VON DER LEYEN MAKE IT? Politics is a rough business. One day you’re on top of the world; the next, not so much. That truth looks more relevant by the day for Ursula von der Leyen as obstacles pile up on her path to winning a second term at the head of the European Commission.

It’s not that anything truly decisive has changed. Von der Leyen remains the frontrunner and her party, the European People’s Party (EPP), is still the biggest show in town. But compared to the days after von der Leyen’s strong performance against the other lead candidates for Commission president in the Maastricht/POLITICO live debate in April, the mood music has entered a minor key.

Start with Emmanuel Macron. Never a fan of having Europe’s conservatives rule the roost for another five years, the French president has let his allies float the name of Mario Draghi, the former Italian PM and central bank chief, as a candidate for top EU jobs — including the one von der Leyen is angling for. It would take a major surprise for the EPP to abandon its claim to the top job, but the buzz around Draghi suggests Macron isn’t averse to trying. And even if the French president’s party takes a beating in the European election, he’s still got a vote in Council, and a big one at that.

Franco-German tie-up? Fresh from his state visit to Berlin, Macron may even have an inkling that Berlin could back a non-von der Leyen candidate.

Berlin on the fence: It was always assumed that Germany’s ruling coalition would follow its agreement and back a German candidate for EU Commission president. But comments to my Berlin Playbook colleagues from senior officials in the Social Democratic Party suggest that the support isn’t as ironclad as it may seem. Senior German SPD officials have even entertained the idea of having Draghi take the top job.

Green option: It’s unlikely that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz would suddenly swing behind Draghi. But his coalition deal allows for another German candidate to be put forward, if the commissioner is not German, as long as they are from the Greens. If von der Leyen fails, Germany’s foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, is among the names being discussed as a candidate for German commissioner rather than president.

VDL’s deep bench: As the EPP’s pick, von der Leyen will likely enjoy the support of 12 EU leaders at the Council table. But if either Germany or France decides to break ranks by putting forward a name that isn’t Ursula von der Leyen, all bets will be off.

Frying pan, meet fire: Assuming von der Leyen does win the Council’s backing, she faces a world of uncertainty in the European Parliament where she needs 361 votes to confirm her nomination. Last time around, she squeaked by with a nine-vote majority. This time looks even more perilous, with three of her potential coalition partners — the Greens, Renew and S&D — all warning they won’t back her if she makes any sort of deal with the hard-right European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. Von der Leyen “will have to make a choice,” Terry Reintke, lead candidate for the Greens, told the Guardian this week.

Take that with a grain of salt: TheGreens didn’t back von der Leyen last time. And no-one has (yet) asked her to publicly distance herself from Meloni as the price for their support. But the comments shed doubt on the strength of support for von der Leyen within those political groups.

Home front: Then there is the EPP itself, where the level of support for von der Leyen is unknown. Some national delegations won’t back her. On Thursday, François-Xavier Bellamy of the Les Républicains party, which belongs to the EPP, wrote on X: “If the president of the European Commission is not reelected, it will be thanks to the fight we’ve led which put her in the minority in her own party. It’s inside our political group that the decision will be made.”

Worrying sign: Bellamy’s group only has a handful of MEPs. But his comments hint at wider uncertainty inside the EPP, where support looks shaky in the Italian and Spanish and Slovenian delegations.

Time to work: “She needs to roll her sleeves up and call everyone,” said one senior conservative operative, who asked not to be named so they could freely discuss campaign challenges.

Do the math: If von der Leyen gets 100 percent support from the three parties that backed her 2019 bid, the total votes in her favor would be 390 — well over the threshold. But if you take into account a 10 percent attrition rate inside each group, which insiders say is a generous estimate of how many MEPs will oppose or sit out the vote, the total drops to 351 — 10 votes short of the mark. Von der Leyen would need extra votes from either the Greens or ECR to get her up to 361.

HOW THE JOBS RACE WILL PLAY OUT: Eddy and Barbara Moens set out a timeline of the horse-trading that will begin on June 10, the day after the election.

EU TOP JOBS READER CONTEST: This morning POLITICO launches a competition to identify the Nostradamus of the EU. Think you can predict who’ll get all the top jobs at the EU and NATO in the months ahead? Enter here for the chance to win a prize, plus bragging rights among your fellow political bubble nerds.

UPDATED: This newsletter has been updated to clarify the potential role of German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock.

**Don't miss a beat on election night! On June 9, EU Confidential Host Sarah Wheaton will share the latest news and real-time analysis in the special video episode "Election Night Live". Sign up now to watch it live!**

UKRAINE

BIDEN BREAKS TABOO AGAINST STRIKING RUSSIA: President Joe Biden has quietly given Ukraine permission to strike inside Russia — solely near the area of Kharkiv — using U.S.-provided weapons, according to a U.S. official and two other people familiar with the decision.

“The president recently directed his team to ensure that Ukraine is able to use U.S. weapons for counter-fire purposes in Kharkiv so Ukraine can hit back at Russian forces hitting them or preparing to hit them,” one of the American officials said, adding that the policy of not allowing long-range strikes inside Russia “has not changed.” More from our U.S. colleagues here.

CHINA TO SNUB PEACE SUMMIT: China won’t attend the Ukraine peace conference to be hosted by Switzerland next month because Beijing wasn’t satisfied that its conditions have been met, including that Russia participates, according to Reuters.

UKRAINE’S GAZA PROBLEM: As Ukraine seeks to shore up international support for its fight against Russia, it now has a fresh headache — the war in Gaza, report Suzanne Lynch and Stuart Lau from Singapore. For many non-NATO countries, Gaza trumps Ukraine when it comes to the list of concerns, given the traditionally pro-Palestinian stance of many countries across Africa, Latin America and Asia.

Make sure you’re signed up to POLITICO’s Global Playbook to keep up to speed with all the developments from the Shangri-La Dialogue this weekend.

CHINA’S TRADE WARNING

SCOOP — CHINA FIRES WARNING SHOT:Beijing has sent a five-page letter to EU trade chief Valdis Dombrovskiscalling for a truce in the unfolding trade war, Camille Gijs and yours truly report. A spokesperson for the Commission confirmed to POLITICO that Dombrovskis had received the letter. “We are working on a reply,” the spokesperson added.

Airbus and agri:China threatens to hit the EU’s aviation and food exports with measures if it doesn’t back down from imposing duties on cheap Chinese electric vehicles, a decision that is expected the week after the EU elections at the latest.

Enough is enough: According to the person briefed, the letter makes clear Beijing is annoyed at the increased pace oftrade investigationslaunched by the EU executive in recent months, and it wants a truce to avoid escalating further.

Sore spot:Hitting agriculture could deal a considerable blow to a sensitive EU sector, with China being thethird-ranking destinationfor the bloc’s agri-food exports and representing 6.4 percent of the EU’s total agri-food trade.

ORBÁN’S PLEA TO LE PEN

VIKTOR ORBÁN HAS ENTERED THE CHAT: Marine Le Pen’spleato Italian PM Meloni to form a right-wing super group in the next European Parliament has received the backing of one of Europe’s most prominent nationalists: Viktor Orbán.

‘Force for Europe’: In an interview with French weekly magazineLe Point, the Hungarian prime minister said the “future of the sovereignist camp in Europe, and of the right in general, now rests in the hands of two women.” Orbán argued that if the French far-right figurehead and Italian leader work together “within a single group or a coalition, they will be a force for Europe,” our own Victor Goury-Laffont reports.

Different camps: Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party currently sits with the ECR in the European Parliament, while Le Pen’s National Rally is part of the Identity and Democracy (ID) group.

Alliance pitch: With the far right projected to surge in theJune 6-9 EU election, Le Pen haspitchedthe idea of a single far-right group that she argues could become the second force in Parliament behind the center-right EPP and give Europe a rightward jolt.

And Orbán shares Le Pen’s vision. The momentum that would result from such a partnership “could be enough to reshape the configuration of the European right, or even supplant the European People’s Party,” he said.

IN OTHER NEWS

DARLING OF THE FRENCH FAR RIGHT: Take a dive deep with this profile of Jordan Bardella, the young leader of France’s National Rally party, by Clea Caulcutt. “Born to a working-class family of Italian origins who came to France in the 1960s, Bardella grew up in public housing in the Gabriel Péri estate in Saint-Denis, an impoverished banlieue north of Paris that regularly makes the headlines as a rough-and-tumble outpost for drug trafficking and violent crime.” Read it here.

BIDEN TO MEET MACRON: The French and U.S. presidents will meet on June 8, during Biden’s first state visit to France, Reuters reported. It will follow Biden’s attendance at commemorations for the 80th anniversary of the Normandy landings two days earlier.

EPP’S BAKOLAS ON TOUR: Secretary-General of the EPP Thanasis Bakolas has been on a whistle-stop tour of EU leaders from allied parties, according to his X account. Croatia, Greece, Ireland, Malta — what could he be up to one week before an election?

FICO OUT OF HOSPITAL: Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico was released from the hospital where he was recovering from an assassination attempt and returned to his home in Bratislava on Thursday, Slovak media reported.

SUNAK’S SURPRISE: U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s decision to call a snap election in July blindsided his own Conservative MPs, with one telling my colleague Esther Webber he only learned of the plan when he was handed a note during a select committee hearing. But it’s worse than that: Staffers at party HQ weren’t in the loop, either, according to campaign officials, former officials, advisers and candidates.

And when you’re done reading that, listen to this: POLITICO’s U.K. Editor Jack Blanchard and Sky News’ Sam Coates are doing a daily podcast in the run-up to the U.K. election, providing an indispensable insight to the battle for control in Westminster. Sign up to Politics at Jack and Sam’s here.

SINCE IT’S FRIDAY: In this week’s Declassified, Paul Dallison ponders whether Macron really will swim in the Seine before the Paris Olympics … don’t forget to take this week’s POLITICO EU election quiz … and in the latest episode of our EU Confidential podcast, we examine which key policies are likely to change in Brussels after next month’s election.

AGENDA

— Meeting of NATO foreign affairs ministers in Prague, Czech Republic; doorstep statement by NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg at 7.45 a.m. … doorstep by Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský at 8 a.m. … arrivals and doorsteps from 8 a.m. … press conference at 1 p.m.

— IISS Shangri-La Dialogue kicks off in Singapore, with Keynote address by Philippine PresidentFerdinand Marcos Jr.Subscribe toGlobal Playbookfor our daily pop-up newsletter from the defense policy shindig.

— Commission Executive Vice President Margrethe Vestager is in Catania, Italy; visits the STMicroelectronics manufacturing site.

— Commissioners Maroš Šefčovič, Paolo Gentiloni, Ylva Johansson and Wopke Hoekstra are in Madrid, Spain at the 70^th Bilderberg Meeting.

— Commission Vice President Vĕra Jourová is in San Francisco, U.S., where she will meet Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Meta.

— Commission Vice President Margaritis Schinas is in Thessaloniki, Greece; participates in the event ‘what Europe do we want’ organized by the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP).

— Agriculture Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski is in Kazakhstan taking part in a ceremony to commemorate the victims of totalitarian regimes in Spassk; visits Karaganda University; attends a dinner at the EU residence, organized by the EU ambassador and Kazakh authorities.

— Environment Commissioner Virginijus Sinkevičius is in Lithuania, where he’ll deliver a speech at the Klaipeda boat show.

— European Econonomic and Social Committee plenary session on “the future of cohesion policy” at 9.30 a.m., chaired by EESC President Oliver Röpke. Statement by Cohesion and Reforms Commissioner Elisa Ferreira … Session on “Europe united against hatred” at 11 a.m. Statement by Commission Vice President Dubravka Šuica. Watch. Agenda.

**Want to know every detail about the upcoming IISS Shangri-La Dialogue? Look no further - read POLITICO’s Global Playbook. Our global newsletter anchored by Suzanne Lynch will cover the ins and out of this event, without you even having to travel to Singapore. Sign up to read here.**

BRUSSELS CORNER

WEATHER: High of 18C, rain.

EU STAFF PROTEST FOR PALESTINE: Around 200 EU employees demonstrated at the Commission on Thursday, denouncing what they referred to as “genocide” and calling for peace in Palestine. Outside the Berlaymont and Justus Lipsius building, some protesters lay down silently while others held signs and decapitated dolls to symbolize the human toll of the conflict, Bruzz reported.

THE CZECH STREET PARTY IS BACK: Returning to the city after a four-year break, the Czech street party will turn the Place de la Monnaie into a celebration of Czech music, food and beer. This year it’s commemorating 20 years of EU membership. Today from 2pm to 10pm.

WHAT’S ON THIS WEEKEND … Spring street parade: Every two years in spring, the Zinneke Parade brings life to the streets of Brussels. This time around, there’ll be floats and costumes inspired by the theme “plaizir.” It’s on Saturday at 3pm in the city center … Tango and empanadas: There’s a tango festival in Le Baixu on Saturday, with food provided. Tickets here … Renaissance festival: A series of events celebrating the importance of Brussels during the Renaissance starts on Sunday. Full details here.

BIRTHDAYS: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán; former MEPs José Ignacio Salafranca Sánchez-Neyra and Barbara Spinelli; POLITICO Europe’s Nicolas Sennegon; John Prescott, former U.K. deputy prime minister.

CELEBRATING SATURDAY, JUNE 1: MEPs Caroline Nagtegaal, Petra Kammerevert, Nathalie Loiseau and Deirdre Clune; former MEP Jean Lambert; POLITICO alum Beth Chamberlain, now with Guild Education; Irish Minister for Sport Thomas Byrne; APCO’s Mathilde Bouvier; journalist Jennifer Baker; Frauke Petry, former head of the Alternative for Germany party and POLITICO 28 alum; Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan; RFERL’s Diane Zeleny; eacon’s Anna Baierl; U.K.’s Mission to the EU Deputy Spokesperson Caitlin Griffith.

CELEBRATING SUNDAY, JUNE 2: MEPs Aurélia Beigneux and Predrag Matić; former French PM Bernard Cazeneuve; EEAS’ Alceo Smerilli; Friedrich von Heusinger from the representation of the state of Hesse to the EU; Industry Dive’s Noelle Knox; OLAF’s Jana Cappello; Maria Tomasik of the European Council; POLITICO’s Louise Guillot. Italy’s Republic Day.

THANKS TO: Playbook editor Alex Spence, reporter Šejla Ahmatović and producer Dato Parulava.